美国负利率?专家称不太可能
Negative US Interest Rates? Not Likely, Say Investors

美国负利率?专家称不太可能

Negative US Interest Rates? Not Likely, Say Investors

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美国负利率?专家称不太可能

Negative US Interest Rates? Not Likely, Say Investors

2019-11-21

欧洲和日本已经维持了多年的负利率。然而,这些举措可能为人们提供一个警告,即当各国央行支持经济增长的措施产生问题时,会发生什么。这是上周在《路透全球投资展望2020峰会》,各国财政官员等人士表达的观点。他们认为,负利率的影响是长期且有害的。


欧洲和日本已经维持了多年的负利率。
Important interest rates in Europe and Japan have been negative for several years.

然而,这些举措可能为人们提供一个警告,即当各国央行支持经济增长的措施产生问题时,会发生什么。
The moves, however, could provide a warning about what happens when central banks’ efforts to support growth create problems instead.

这是上周在《路透全球投资展望2020峰会》,各国财政官员等人士表达的观点。
That is the idea expressed last week by finance officials and others at the Reuters Global Investment Outlook 2020 Summit.

他们认为,负利率的影响是长期且有害的。
They argue that the effects of below-zero interest rates are long-lasting and harmful.

负利率是指贷款方(而非借款方)必须支付利息。
Interest rates are negative when lenders – not borrowers – must pay interest.

批评人士表示,负利率会惩罚储户,给大型银行带来麻烦,导致人们冒更大风险来获得小额利息。
Critics say negative rates punish people who save money, cause problems for big banks and lead people to take bigger risks to get a small amount of interest.

全球约有12.5万亿美元的债券是负利率,占发达国家债务的30%。
About $12.5 trillion of the world’s bonds, about 30 percent of the debt of countries in the developed world, pay negative interest.

日本央行和欧洲央行希望维持经济增长和小幅通胀,因此将利率降为负利率。
The Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank want economic growth and a small amount of inflation, so they have cut their interest rates to below zero.

然而,负利率政策有助于其它利率保持较低水平,如银行付给储户的利率。
However, a negative interest rate policy helps keep other interest rates, like the ones banks pay savers, low.

贝莱德集团在最近的一篇博客中解释道,这意味着攒钱等退休或者已经退休的老年人正在赔钱。
That means older people saving for retirement or in retirement are losing money, explained a recent blog post by BlackRock.

贝莱德集团等投资方表示,杰罗姆·鲍威尔主席领导下的美联储一直在密切关注欧洲和日本的局势。
Blackrock and other investors say the U.S. Federal Reserve under Chairman Jerome Powell has been closely watching the situation in Europe and Japan.

他们称鲍威尔希望避免美国出现负利率。
They say Powell wants to avoid negative rates in the United States.

丹·伊瓦辛表示:“根据鲍威尔和美联储其他代表的说法,他们不想采取负利率。”
“When you listen to Powell and other representatives of the Fed, they don’t want to takes rates negative,” said Dan Ivascyn.

伊瓦辛是债券承销商太平洋资产管理公司的投资官员。
He is an investment officer at bond seller Pacific Investment Management Co.

他说:“美联储采用这一方法的概率很小。”
“It will be well down the list of the tools that they will use,” he said.

欧洲和日本央行的举动引发了一大疑问,即诸如美联储之类的其它机构会采取什么手段应对经济放缓。
The moves by Europe and Japan’s central banks have raised a question about what tools others, such as the U.S. Federal Reserve, have to fight a slowing economy.

美联储上个月将隔夜借贷利率下调了0.25个百分点,降至1.5%到1.75%之间的目标水平。
The U.S. central bank last month cut its overnight lending rate by a fourth of a percentage point to a target somewhere between 1.5 percent and 1.75 percent.

美国总统特朗普曾建议美联储将利率下调至负利率,以允许美国政府为其22万亿美元债务进行再融资。
U.S. President Donald Trump has suggested that the Federal Reserve push interest rates into negative numbers as a way to permit the U.S. government to refinance its $22 trillion in debt.

一些与会的金融专家表示,这种情况不太可能会发生。
That is unlikely to happen, some of the financial experts at the meetings said.

格雷格·彼得斯表示:“话不能说死,但是美联储的确在采取零利率政策上非常犹豫不决。”
“Never say never, but there is a real hesitancy here in the U.S. to take rates below (zero),” said Greg Peters.

他就职于PGIM固定收益投资公司。
He is with the investment company, PGIM Fixed Income.

他还说:“我认为美国已经从观望其它地区负利率影响中受益。”
“I think the U.S. has had the benefit of seeing the (effects) of negative rates elsewhere,” he added.

负利率并不总是会导致贷款增加和商业投资增加。
Negative interest rates do not always lead to an increase in lending and growing business investment.

负利率会导致金融机构的收入减少。
Negative rates can cause financial organizations to earn less.

如果金融机构的利润收到影响,他们可能会完全停止放贷,这将会损害经济。
If their profits are affected they might stop lending altogether and that would hurt the economy.

安妮·马蒂亚斯在Vanguard集团负责投资。
Anne Mathias supervises investing at Vanguard.

马蒂亚斯是一名全球利率专家。
She is an expert in worldwide interest rates.

她指出,美国不太可能实施负利率。
She said negative interest rates are unlikely.

她说:“如果我们陷入衰退,我们将再次回到量化宽松政策并扩大资产负债表。”
“If we go into a recession…we will just go back to quantitative easing and expand the balance sheet again,” she said.

安德鲁·许是DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund的经理。
Andrew Hsu is a manager of the DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund.

他对负利率影响提出了警告。
He warned about the effects of negative rates.

他说:“如果在未来10到20年实施负利率,那在座的各位谁都别想退休了。”
“If we had negative rates for the next 10-20 years... no one in this room will be able to retire,” he said.

苏珊·尚德为您播报。
I’m Susan Shand.